Kiel Institute for the World Economy

The aim of the study is to quantify climate induced health risks for Germany. Based on high resolution climate scenarios for the period 2071 to 2100 we forecast the number of days with heat load and cold stress. The heat frequency and intensity rise overall but more in the south. Referring to empirical studies on heat induced health effects we estimate an average increase in the number of heat induced casualties by a factor of more than 3. Heat related hospitalization costs increase 6-fold not including the cost of ambulant treatment. Heat also reduces the work performance resulting in an estimated output loss of between 0.1 % and 0.5 % of GDP.